Over the past three weeks, XAUUSD has been exhibiting a slightly upward, sideways movement, forming a classic Ascending Triangle pattern. This formation is often indicative of potential bullish pressure, signaling a likelihood of an imminent breakout to the upside.
Key Price Zones & Pattern Analysis:
• The support zone around 2490 has been instrumental in halting bearish attempts, showing resilience as buyers re-enter the market at each retest of this level.
• The Equal High zone at 2527 stands as a critical resistance level and liquidity zone. With prices approaching this region, there is an increased possibility of a breakout, especially if buying pressure continues to mount.
• On the downside, the Equal Low zone at 2465 serves as an important level to watch in case of a breakdown, though the strength of the ascending trendline currently supports a bullish scenario.
NFP Influence and Bearish Reaction:
• The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release last week caused a notable bearish movement, sending the price back toward the ascending support line. However, this downward move was quickly met by buyers, reinforcing the bullish potential of the Ascending Triangle pattern.
Upcoming Data Releases and Potential Impact:
This week is significant for both USD and XAUUSD traders as multiple important U.S. economic data points are scheduled:
1. Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) – Inflation data that will be closely watched by the market for any indications of the Fed’s future policy moves.
2. PPI (Producer Price Index) – An important indicator of wholesale inflation that can influence the USD's strength.
3. Unemployment Claims – Any surprises here could further impact the price of XAUUSD.
Possible Scenarios:
1. Bullish Breakout:
If the price holds above the ascending trendline and breaks the 2527 resistance zone, a bullish breakout could target levels higher, particularly if upcoming U.S. economic data weakens the dollar.
A break of this resistance would open doors for higher levels, potentially targeting 2540-2550 as new resistance areas.
2. Bearish Scenario:
On the flip side, if the ascending support zone fails and the price breaks below 2490, there could be further bearish momentum toward the 2465 equal low zone.
This would suggest the emergence of more sellers and could test broader support zones in the 2450 range.
Disclaimer
The analysis provided above is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice.
